Management The Use of Paper by Using Forecast Method of Printing Document of Uttaradit Vocational College

Abstract

This research aimed to study predictive theories in the analysis of paper results. And to compare actual paper usage with paper usage forecast of printing papers at Uttaradit Vocational College. The populations were personnel of General Administration Division.The research was conducted by using historical data from June to November 2020.There were 4 theories used in this research including Last Period Demand (LPD), Arithmetic Average (AA), Moving Average (MA), and Regression Analysis (RA). Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) was used for finding efficiency of forecast results to calculate forecast value and compare with the actual use of paper.

The results revealed that forecast method that gave good results was Arithmetic Average (AA). In December 2020 and January 2021, forecast value was 94 reams that was equal to MAD as 14.40 and 11.86, respectively. Gap was 2 reams and 7 reams, respectively. The researcher used gap to compare and consider for calculating reorder point in paper management of printing document to meet with objectives.