Creating a Model to Forecast The Number of Applicants for Higher Education

Abstract

The research on creating a model to forecast of the number of applicants to higher education aims to create a forecasting model for the number of applicants to higher education and to find the forecast value of the number of applicants to higher education, which will be useful in budgeting and public relations for student recruitment in higher education. This study studied data from the Office of the Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Higher Education, Science, Research and Innovation and the National Economic and Social Development Board. The data were analyzed by finding the mean, simple correlation analysis, coefficient of determination, and simple regression analysis. The results of the study are as follows:

The study studied the number of births from 1993-2005 and the number of students who studied in higher education from the academic year 2011-2023 using Microsoft Excel and the ready-made program SPSS to analyze the data, including the number of births from 1993-2005, the number of applicants to study in higher education from 2011-2023, and analyzed the correlation, coefficient of determination, and simple linear regression analysis. Between the number of births and the number of students applying to study at the tertiary level, it was found that the data on the number of births and the number of applicants to study at the tertiary level were related in the same direction. From the regression analysis, the equation for predicting the number of applicants to study at the tertiary level was Y = 0.578X – 51,536.38, where X represents the number of births and Y represents the number of students applying to study at the tertiary level, with a value of = 0.947, indicating that the number of births and the number of students applying to study at the tertiary level are highly related, and the relationship is in the same direction. R² = 0.897, indicating that the number of births can explain 89.7% of the change in the number of students applying to study at the tertiary level.

The hypothesis testing found that from the results of the relationship between the number of births and the number of students applying to study at the tertiary level, there was a very high relationship, and the relationship was in the same direction. The result of the relationship test (t = 9.767**) found that the relationship between the number of births and the number of students applying to study at the tertiary level was linear. Therefore, from the hypothesis that the number of applicants to continue studying at the tertiary level will decrease, it is true at the 0.01 significance level.