LMDI Decomposition of CO₂ Emissions  from Thailand’s Electricity Generation Sector (2014–2023)

Wanchanok Jitkla; Dong-Woon Noh

Authors

Wanchanok Jitkla Global Energy Technology Policy Professional Program, Department of Global Climate Environmental Studies, Hanyang University, Republic of Korea; Department of Mineral Resources, Thailand
Dong-Woon Noh Global Energy Technology Policy Professional Program, Department of Global Climate Environmental Studies, Hanyang University, Republic of Korea

Keywords:

CO2 emissions, electricity generation, energy transition, fuel mix, LMDI decomposition, Thailand

Abstract

This study analyzes the driving forces of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from Thailand’s electricity generation sector during 2014–2023 using the additive Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method. Electricity generation accounts for the largest share of Thailand’s energy-related CO₂ emissions and is central to achieving national climate targets under the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) and long-term carbon neutrality and net-zero goals. An additive LMDI framework based on an extended Kaya identity decomposes changes in total CO₂ emissions into five components: activity, structural, fuel mix, thermal efficiency, and emission factor effects. The analysis uses annual electricity generation data from the Global Change Data Lab, energy consumption data from Thailand’s Energy Balance compiled by the Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency (DEDE), and default emission factors from the 2006 IPCC Guidelines. In addition, scenario-based projections are developed to assess emission pathways consistent with Thailand’s 2030 NDC target, 2050 carbon neutrality, and a 2065 net-zero greenhouse gas emissions goal. The results show that total CO₂ emissions from the electricity sector declined by approximately 10.02 Mt CO₂ during 2014–2023. Improvements in thermal efficiency and structural changes in the generation mix were the main drivers of emission reductions, while shifts in fuel mix from coal toward natural gas and renewable energy provided additional mitigation effects. However, rising electricity demand, captured by the activity effect, partially offset these gains. Scenario analysis suggests that pathways featuring accelerated renewable energy deployment and earlier coal phase-out are more consistent with Thailand’s higher-ambition NDC targets and long-term decarbonization goals. The findings provide quantitative evidence on the relative importance of demand growth, efficiency improvement, and structural change, offering policy-relevant insights for electricity-sector decarbonization in Thailand.

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