Forecasting Fish Feed Demand: A Case Study of Nile Tilapia Feed Distributors Operated by Phan Fisheries Cooperative, Phan District, Chiang Rai Province

Abstract

This research aims to address the problem of uncertainty in fish feed demand, which affects the sales planning and raw material ordering of the Phan Fisheries Cooperative. The objectives are: 1) to forecast customer demand using quantitative forecasting techniques, 2) to compare forecast errors in order to assess forecasting accuracy, and 3) to propose guidelines for planning fish feed sales for the cooperative. The study used historical sales data over the past two years and conducted interviews with staff. Data were analyzed using three forecasting techniques: Simple Moving Average, Weighted Moving Average, and Exponential Smoothing, to compare forecasting accuracy.

The results showed that the 3-month Weighted Moving Average method yielded the lowest forecast error, particularly for fish feed code SN8901, which had the lowest Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) at 64.08%. The analysis of the Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) revealed that the optimal order quantity for SN8901 was 813 bags per year, reducing purchasing costs by 7,094.38 baht. For SN8901B, the optimal order was 2,376 bags per year, reducing costs by 7,112.42 baht. SN8902 was 1,479 bags per year, reducing costs by 3,462.66 baht. and 8501S was 250 bags per year, reducing costs by 3,456.83 baht. The findings can be used by business operators to plan fish feed sales more efficiently and improve inventory management.